The GazerBlog

Well, the new year is here and it seems that Wal*Mart’s supplier might finally be running out of mercy from the rest of the world. China is basically screwing up what portions of the world economy work to restore trade imbalances and it’s been working their way for a long time now. A columnist from the NY Times has laid out why that’s broken. Have a read.

Op-Ed Columnist – Chinese New Year – NYTimes.com

By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: December 31, 2009
It’s the season when pundits traditionally make predictions about the year ahead. Mine concerns international economics: I predict that 2010 will be the year of China. And not in a good way.

I have no beef against China personally. They compete on cost, not on quality in the majority of things which doesn’t make them my preferred supplier of goods in general, but they are a respected and powerful country with smart, industrious people in it. We’ll leave the politics aside as I have a major beef there, but we’re talking just economics for now.

China wants to play in the world, but only with the rules that favour them. Thus they have for a very long time pegged their currency by mandate rather than market. That’s bought them most of their hyper-accelerated growth and industrialization, but now it’s gone past being irritating and as the columnist puts it, it is turning predatory.

All I have to say is, either unpeg the currency and let it float or every single industrialized nation should create a slowly increasing set of duties on import goods from China that will increase quarterly until the values of the goods are close to the estimated value if the currency was floating.

This means a good chunk of our goods get more expensive. But we ladder it in. The flip side is that China doesn’t build everything for the entire world, but manufacturing gets distributed around again as it should in a free-trading economy. The other benefit is the Chinese people get some purchasing power in the world, rather than just selling power. Some standards of living might go up as the Yuan is worth more on the open market. That will deplete some of the Chinese hard currency income and even reserves, but the system will slowly balance itself out to some extent from the huge inequity it’s in now.

The shocker is that the Chinese leader is complaining about the duties. Maybe he really doesn’t understand market economics and the fact that the rest of the world isn’t a game he plays on a spreadsheet. We look out for our countries and people too. Too bad it took so long for that to happen this time.

Currently playing in iTunes: Holiday by Green Day

Wind mobile is out of the gate. Honestly, it reminds me of our lost upstarts of ClearNET and Fido, both absorbed and extinguished in spirit if not name by Telus and Rogers respectively. CBC News – Calgary – Wind Mobile launches service

The most ridiculous statement in the entire stage surrounding the launch is from the union rep stating the ability for Wind to launch amid questionable foreign ownership is “an affront to democracy”. Excuse me? It’s an affront to democracy that the elected government overruled the bureaucracy that is tasked with carrying out the laws and intents of that government? Really? Sounds like the system is working to me.

What was an affront to democracy was the CRTC that tried to overrule the launch of Wind on foreign ownership grounds (which are unfounded in my opinion. They are within the law and restrictions as required) allowed Telus and Rogers to purchase and remove the only competitors to them in the nation. Bell came to the party as a tag-along really. They didn’t get there first on the purchases. Democracy, and the nation is served by a thriving, competitive communication service. We haven’t had that since Fido was absorbed.

Face facts. Mobile is a cash cow for the multi-industry conglomerates. That has been milked to the point we have the lowest mobile penetration in the industrialized world. The infrastructure costs of rolling out these networks of towers is no longer the obstacle it was. The issue is that the shareholders of Telus, Bell and Rogers are not going to be able to ride the backs of the cell customers for their profits, arbitrarily changing pricing and marking up almost no-cost services (caller ID for one) to the tune of 40,000 times for their profits. They will have to compete.

I hope Wind succeeds and gives us all reasonable, competitive choices in the marketplace. And I really hope Apple gets the iPhone onto the 1700 MHz spectrum soon, so the US has a choice for T-Mobile and we have a choice with Wind.

The union rep should examine how much the cellular oligopoly in Canada has set us back as a nation. They have done more damage to “Canadian interests and culture”, not to mention competitiveness, than anything Wind could ever achieve.

Currently playing in iTunes: The Polar Express by Tom Hanks

Not content with screwing up their own rights and freedoms, it appears the ACTA negotiations are a concerted effort to take a bad law and make it global on behalf of the USA and the antiquated entertainment cartel.

The tenets of this treaty are such that it would drastically impinge both Canadian and EU laws, and be yet another strike against honest consumers and researchers alike.

Despite numerous examples throughout the world of better and more equitable ways of dealing with these issues, the USA and others continue to press these consumer-hostile approaches behind closed doors with secret treaties. I imagine the corporations have a number of seats at the table or at least open access to the text and notes, but the consumers, the citizens of these nations are kept from even knowing the intent of these negotiations.

It is a horrible example of how governments are manipulated by special interest groups, and further how antiquated the approach is for this treaty. Many nations, including Canada, have been holding open forum copyright consultations. This flies in the face of that process, and I believe Canada and other nations that follow such proper open policies in developing laws should withdraw from the ACTA negotiations and make it clear that this is not an acceptable way to develop laws and treaties any longer.

EU ACTA Analysis Leaks: Confirms Plans For Global DMCA, Encourage 3 Strikes Model: “EU ACTA Analysis Leaks: Confirms Plans For Global DMCA, Encourage 3 Strikes Model”

(Via Michael Geist Blog.)

And I should be posting this to twitter as well with the WP to Twitter plugin. Get that social media integration happening!

Sigh. Happy Birthday Dad. I miss you.

Maybe it’s just me, but this year the television networks seem to be a lot more with it around Remembrance Day and veterans week. I have learned a great deal about Canadian efforts in WW I, WW II and all they way up to present day this week, and I wasn’t exactly ignorant before this point of our roles in the world stage.

We have much to be proud of. From Vimy Ridge to Afghanistan today, Canada has taken a leadership role in many ways beyond what many think our small nation has been capable of.

I think the most telling point in my mind was today on the radio. The commentator was talking about Afghanistan today. I paraphrase, but I’ll put it as a block quote in my own words to put it in the first person voice more effectively to bring it across to you:

Today in Afghanistan, people trust and feel safer with the Maple Leaf. Canadian soldiers since they started in Afghanistan have come out of their armoured vehicles, taken off their sunglasses and worked very hard to reach out to the Afghan people to understand them, help them, earn their trust and work with them to rebuild and improve their nation with them. This approach has been so successful that the leader of the US Military has called for a change of tactics in civilian engagement to mirror the Canadian approach.

The people that serve our nation are doing more to define Canada on the world stage than anyone else, and they are putting their lives on the line in doing it. They deserve our respect, our support and our commitment to them.

To all of our veterans, and to all of our servicemen and women in the forces today, I thank you for having such commitment to our great country, and in helping to make our country so great. Know that we are proud of you as a nation, and the rich tradition of our military is well worth knowing for everyone in Canada.

We should all take note of our Infantry’s motto. The Royal Canadian Infantry rallies to the Latin word Ducimus.

It means “We Lead”.

It seems Canada is going to have competing 3G carriers. Telus, Bell and Rogers will all be iPhone providers (and thus 3G providers) as of November this year. We’ll see if Rogers reacts or just keeps screwing over customers. We’ll see if these companies actually compete or not or just sit on the profits as they’ve done for a few decades, even threatening to become an income trust rather than innovate and compete and serve the country as leaders in global telecommunications.

The biggest question is: Is anyone going to offer an unlocked iPhone in Canada now?

Now that would be a day where we see bacon-flavoured vapour trails in the sky. We can keep hoping!

Great timing. No details if the iPhones are unlocked, but carrier exclusivity is mercifully coming to a close in the UK. Of course, we need another national 3G carrier in Canada to bring the benefit home, plus another couple of years for the Roger’s 3-year jail term to all of us to expire, but there does seem to be a glimmer of sunshine on the Eastern horizon.

iPhone Comes to Orange in UK: “iPhone Comes to Orange in UK”

(Via World of Apple.)

Yes, that’s a pretty rare statement as I still hold the incumbents have all but abdicated the responsibility that comes with being a utility and the steward of a public piece of infrastructure. Instead, they have become wholly beholden only to their shareholders. That’s fine as long as you don’t own the wires that come into my residence. Then do what you want as a profitable company. That aside, this article raises a very interesting point: AT&T accuses Google of violating telecom law

AT&T may be grandstanding, it may be a stunt, it may be posturing. The point is that net neutrality, outside the boardrooms and courtrooms, is in my view about expectations of the customers. Of the users. If you are integrating with a voice communications system, and you say “free calls to landlines within North Amercia” then the expectation is free calls to landlines within North America. Not to have calls blocked because the revenue model falls apart to certain exchanges. If it’s not to all phones, then market it as “Free calls to most places within North America”.

AT&T points out they are prohibited from doing this as it is part of the communications infrastructure. Google is making the case that they are a web application, and not a telecommunication provider. The boundary line seems somewhat clear if you look at the strict definition, but that definition is very blurred when you realize that most telecomms use IP technology in their switches and backbone services now. Your phone calls may be actually VOIP between exchanges even though you’re calling from one POTS line to another. So are the telecomms IP application providers with well-managed networks, or are these web VOIP and telephony service providers just pretend telecomms that can’t bring a true full-features service to the market?

Telephones are critical infrastructure. That is still the primary deployment and notification mode for emergergency services. That’s why the cell providers need to have 911 capabilities as we move forward. It’s time Google, and Vonage and others quit hiding behind the “cowboy upstart” backdrop and get things out of Beta and provide a proper service if they want to integrate with this critical infrastructure. The CLECs have been stepping up and competing quite well without gray exemptions. It’s time the team at Google steps up and grows up. Beta was all nice and cute when you started out. Now start delivering or get out of the way of the guys trying to make a real, reliable competitor to these incumbents.

We need to push the telecommunications fabric forward, and services forward, not just cherry-pick and fragment and fundamental piece of our society’s infrastructure so we can turn a quick buck.

While we’re at it, AT&T can start competing and providing value as well rather than continuously upping rates and providing services months or even years after other wireless providers have them in Europe and elsewhere.

And while I’m wishing, let’s get some unlocked iPhones supported by multiple carriers in each country so we can travel without huge data penalties or needing to buy an iPhone in each country under contract. That part Apple sent us backwards a few years on. Even in Europe.

Well, I can dream. The spectrum auctions in Canada and the US might get us a few steps closer now that the competitors are starting to roll out the services.

Music Publishers and Writers Lobbying Congress for Additional Compensation for Digital Distribution

(Via MacRumors.)

So now you get a segment of the industry claiming that my private listening of a 30 second sample of a song is a public broadcast, and I should pay (through iTunes store, but ultimately, costs go to the customer) for a broadcast on the work that is being peddled to me that I may outright purchase?

Seriously, why are they doing this idiot fight? Change your negotiations on the rights for your work moving forward, and do it in such a way that is fair to you AND your customer, being those of use who continue to pay for your music despite your ongoing attempt to beat us up and make us go renegade and pirate it so you can turn around and sue us.

Nothing makes me happier than buying a disc or track from a true indie. One that isn’t via a big label or one of their million subsidiaries, one that writes their own music, a true artist or group of artists that market themselves, and build a relationship with their fans. Give them the money. I’ll buy direct when I can, but if they are on iTunes like the Heebee-Jeebees for example, I’ll go that way as I’ve got too many physical CDs already.

If you’re a songwriter, and you write for someone else, negotiate the royalty per copy, and a performance royalty per public performance, and look at it from the people who pay for it. Me listening to a 30 second sample to see if I want to buy it is not, in any sane person’s perception, a public performance of any kind. Radios, concerts, televsions shows, movies shown for profit or in public are public performances or broadcasts. Note the root in the word. Broadcast. More than a couple of people. Definitely more than one.

I’d like a list of artists that are on the side of the fans. Canada has one, but I’d like a worldwide list. They are there. Some are big names. This blog post gives a nice synopsis. C’mon artists. Sell us your works and we will pay you. It’s pretty simple. Play your concerts and we will buy tickets. Something for something.

Some people wonder why I didn’t pursue music more seriously. I think I would have gone psychotic in the days before widespread internet if I had. I believe in the audience. The industry forgot what an audience was long, long ago. Fortunately, there are many artists that are giving that spirit a much-deserved renaissance, and they have my support, both financially and emotionally.

Currently playing in iTunes: Use The Force by The Heebee-Jeebees

Well, that is just making my Sunday. Bettman and his cronies had to put forward the goods at last. I almost think Balsillie and his crew took the Phoenix valuation from the apparent value the NHL was putting on it, and thus lowballed the relocation as a result, and maybe on purpose. This has, in my opinion, played right into the RIM owner’s hands.

The argument that Phoenix is not a good hockey market and Hamilton is has been central to a lot of the attempt to move the club. Seems that the experts the NHL put forth agree. Now they are really going to be in a quagmire. The prices and rationale are detailed here.

Now how to you say Balsillie isn’t a fit owner when he had already figured out that the club was going to be, using the NHL’s numbers now, worth about 100M+ more in Hamilton than in the deserts of Arizona? Seems like he’s the one that knows how to make a successful franchise from a business point of view, and the Phoenix thing was a pipe-dream when the Jets closed up shop. Now Hamilton would possibly be the 4th most valuable franchise in the league? Seems like the Baron of the Blackberry knows what he’s doing. Bettman? Maybe not so much.

So let’s put a bit of a hypothetical situation forward. The NHL has now basically said that the purchase price + a relocation fee from their experts (somewhere in between the two probably) is the price of the franchise. Let’s further assume that Balsillie figured this out a while ago, knowing that there would be some fee and accrual for impact on the TO and Ottawa markets, as well as some Bettman tax for “psychological suffering” or something when he didn’t get his way. Oh wait. I guess that’s for indemnification on teams needing to rebook plane tickets or something. Don’t factor in you probably just created another great pile of rivalries in Ontario rather than just the Habs-Leafs-Sens triangle. Now you have 4 teams. Need a Quebec City franchise back next to really heat things up out there again.

Back on track now. Let’s say Balsillie put all that together when he started this merry romp through the farsical fiasco of NHL franchises under Bettman’s regime. Let’s say he ponies up a reasonable offer in the 350-400M range all in, including the 200M + for the franchise and this inflated relocation fee. What can the NHL say at that point? Unfit owner? Based on what? Knowing that the League Commissioner is clueless about the sport? They don’t like his suits? Canada doesn’t matter to them as a hockey market? (Oh wait, they tried that last one already.)

Seems to me if Jim Balsillie wants a franchise, it’s his for the taking if he wants to put that amount of money forward and put up with whatever other BS the league will throw at him out of spite in losing the fight for Phoenix. Personally, I hope he ponies up the dough and turns it into a great franchise for the fans in Canada that really care about the game. The league already has egg on their faces. Maybe it’s time they consider mending the fences and being reasonable businessmen that also care about this great game of hockey, rather than trying to unseat the NBA in the USA for television time.

Good luck in getting the franchise Hamilton. Looks like even the league says it’s a good place for hockey.